With South Africa officially in the rear-view mirror, it's time to look towards Euro 2012 in Poland/Ukraine. All of Europe will look to qualify for just fourteen spots available (two spots for the host nations). Although the international powers from North America and South America are not involved in this tournament, Euro 2012 shows the depth and dominance that the continent has in the sport. There are eight qualifying groups for Euro 2012 with the winner of each group advancing forward. In addition, the second place team with the most points automatically qualifies. Lastly, the remaining group runner-ups advance to the playoffs to determine the final positions in the tournament. Qualifying begins for most teams today so let's not waste anymore time and delve into my predictions for each group and who will make up the field for Euro 2012.
Group A: Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Germany, Kazakhstan, Turkey
Coming off an impressive campaign in South Africa, Germany are the clear favorites to win Group A. Die Mannschaft should face some tough matchups on the road, but not enough to be challenged at the top of the group. One of the most interesting storylines in this group will deal with German star Mesut Ozil. Ozil was born in Germany, but is half Turkish and had the choice to play for Turkey internationally. Don't expect him to get a warm welcome when he visits Istanbul in October 2011. Behind Germany, the Turks look like the team to beat in this group. They have an experienced team that had great success in Euro '08 getting all the way to the semifinals and have veteran coach Guus Hiddink patrolling the bench.
1. Germany
2. Turkey
3. Austria
4. Belgium
5. Kazakhstan
6. Azerbaijan
Group B: Andorra, Armenia, Macedonia, Republic of Ireland, Russia, Slovakia
The most shocking team not to qualify for the 2010 FIFA World Cup from Europe may have been Russia. After a great showing in Euro '08, Russia gave Germany a run for their money in their World Cup qualifying group only to fall just short and eventually lose a playoff to Slovenia. Russia will look to bounce back but may have trouble doing so in this top heavy group. Slovakia is a team on the rise after advancing to the knockout stages in South Africa and no team in the world is hungrier for an international tournament than the Republic of Ireland. Defending home soil could be the difference between winning this group and coming up empty. With the momentum that Slovakia has coming out of the World Cup, they will continue to surprise and top a rather difficult Group B.
1. Slovakia
2. Russia
3. Republic of Ireland
4. Macedonia
5. Armenia
6. Andorra
Group C: Estonia, Faroe Islands, Italy, Northern Ireland, Serbia, Slovenia
Like Group B, Group C is incredibly top heavy with Italy, Serbia, and Slovenia. All three teams made the World Cup and all three had their tournament end in heartbreaking fashion. The Azzurri are in the midst of a much needed youth movement as Cannavaro, Gattuso and Co. are now an image of the past. Serbia is a strong defensive team but lacks the scoring punch up front to be considered elite. Slovenia is as good if not better than Serbia defensively, but they don't have much creativity in their midfield besides Robert Koren. In the end, Italy will have just enough to win this group with Serbia finishing a couple points behind. More heartbreak for Slovenia.
1. Italy
2. Serbia
3. Slovenia
4. Northern Ireland
5. Estonia
6. Faroe Islands
Group D: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Luxembourg, Romania
In one of the weaker qualifying groups for Euro 2012, France will look to bounce back from the utter embarrassment at the World Cup. New coach Laurent Blanc will have his hands full building team chemistry and finding someone to captain the squad. Even though Group D lacks quality, France isn't a lock to run away with first place. In fact, Bosnia and Herzegovina is a rising team led by striker Edin Dzeko and don't be surprised if they top the group. France will struggle to build chemistry and team unity in their first few matches and it will cost them the top spot in Group D.
1. Bosnia and Herzegovina
2. France
3. Albania
4. Romania
5. Belarus
6. Luxembourg
Group E: Finland, Hungary, Moldova, Netherlands, San Marino, Sweden
The Netherlands went unblemished during their qualification for World Cup 2010. This time around shouldn't be as easy. Not to say that the Dutch won't top Group E, but Sweden, Finland, and Hungary will all prove to be tough road tests for the World Cup runner-ups. The battle for second place will be interesting as Sweden, Hungary, and Finland all have a legitimate chance. Sweden has the most talent of the three and will squeak by the other two to make it to the playoff round.
1. Netherlands
2. Sweden
3. Hungary
4. Finland
5. Moldova
6. San Marino
Group F: Croatia, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Malta
There's always one group in qualifying that seems weaker than the rest and Group F is it. Croatia should be the team to beat and will be hungry after missing the World Cup. After them, Greece is the best team on paper. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Since winning Euro 2004, Greece has struggled mightily in international tournaments. In such a wide open group, it's common for an upstart team to surprise and finish second. Latvia will be that team and take the next step on the international level.
1. Croatia
2. Latvia
3. Greece
4. Israel
5. Georgia
6. Malta
Group G: Bulgaria, England, Montenegro, Switzerland, Wales
The Three Lions will not only look to win Group G but will look to win back the hearts of their fans after a disappointing showing in South Africa. Euro 2012 may also prove to be the last international tournament for Steven Gerrard, John Terry, and Frank Lampard so the window for England may be closing. England is definitely the most talented team in this group, but coach Fabio Capello needs to find a starting XI that gels. With their defensive prowess, Switzerland is the type of team that can give England fits so Capello needs to find an offensive spark and someone to pair with Wayne Rooney. England will win this group but it won't be pretty. Expect lackluster scorelines especially on the road.
1. England
2. Switzerland
3. Bulgaria
4. Wales
5. Montenegro
Group H: Cyprus, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Portugal
For the second straight international tournament, Denmark and Portugal are in the same group. In World Cup qualifying, Denmark had a comeback win at Portugal and played to a draw at home en route to topping that group. Expect these two teams to battle for the top spot in this group as well. However this time around, look for Portugal to finish in first place. Despite losing their coach Carlos Queiroz for their first four matches, Portugal's defense will prevail in this group as they just edge out Denmark.
1. Portugal
2. Denmark
3. Norway
4. Iceland
5. Cyprus
Group I: Czech Republic, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Scotland, Spain
The World Cup champions and defending European champions have an absolute cakewalk in Group I. They should not and will not drop a match in this group. It is difficult to establish who actually is the second best team in this group. Czech Republic is the team with the most international success in the past, but they do not have near the talent they used to. Much like Group F, look for an unknown team to surprise in Group I and finish a distant second place. Lithuania will be that team.
1. Spain
2. Lithuania
3. Czech Republic
4. Scotland
5. Liechtenstein
So Germany, Slovakia, Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Netherlands, Croatia, England, Portugal and Spain automatically qualify for winning their respective groups. As for the second place team with the most points, look for Russia to lock up that spot. Lastly, the remaining eight second-place teams will face off with the top four ranked teams according to FIFA's rankings being seeded. For the sake of this blog, we'll use the current rankings to make these hypothetical matchups. Turkey v. Sweden, France v. Latvia, Serbia v. Denmark, and Switzerland v. Lithuania. Look for Sweden, France, Denmark, and Switzerland to survive their respected two-legged playoffs.
So now that my predictions are done, here is my projected field for Euro 2012.
Poland (co-host)
Ukraine (co-host)
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
Denmark
England
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Russia
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
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